NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

On Sunday, July 19^th, NASCAR will be live from the Texas Motor Speedway (TMS) in Fort Worth, Texas, for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. This is the 18^th race of the 2020 season and it follows what was an exciting All-Star race this past Wednesday, which Chase Elliott won.

Heading into this weekend, Kevin Harvick sits on top of the standings and continues to stretch out his lead. So, it’s no surprise that he’s a large betting favorite for this weekend’s race. Rounding out the Top 5 favorites for most NASCAR betting sites are Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr.

Race Profile

The Texas Motor Speedway is a quad oval track with a lap distance of roughly 1.5 miles with four turns. The first two turns have 20 degrees of banking, while the last two turns have a banking of 24 degrees. This track is also very similar to Atlanta and Charlotte Speedways. Sunday’s race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 501 miles
• Total Laps: 334 laps
• Stage 1: First 105 laps
• Stage 2: Second 105 laps
• Final Stage: Remaining 124 laps

The O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 is set to begin at 3 PM ET and will air live on NBCSN.

What to Watch for at Texas

With all of the racing action heading into this late-July weekend, the following NASCAR storylines are worth keeping an eye on at Texas Motor Speedway:

• Will Kevin Harvick continue his domination on the field?
• Can Kyle Busch win his 4^th races at TMS?
• Will Toyota win this race for a 3^rd straight year?
• Can Joe Gibbs Racing win for the 3^rd straight year?
• Will there be any first time winners on Sunday?
• Can Ford win this race for an 11^th time?

Time to saddle up. 🤠

We’re heading to No Limits @TXMotorSpeedway this weekend as #NASCARSalutes continues. pic.twitter.com/kZ7ixuQBF8

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 17, 2020

Previous O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Winners

The first spring Texas race was run in 1997 and won by Jeff Burton. However, it’s Kyle Busch that holds the record for the most wins in this race with three. Five other drivers have won this race twice. Denny Hamlin is the defending champ having won this race in 2019.

The following is a list of the previous winners:

• Jeff Burton in 1997, 2007
• Mark Martin in 1998
• Terry Labonte in 1999
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2000
• Dale Jarrett in 2001
• Matt Kenseth in 2002, 2011
• Ryan Newman in 2003
• Elliott Sadler in 2004
• Greg Biffle in 2005, 2012
• Kasey Kahne in 2006
• Carl Edwards in 2008
• Jeff Gordon in 2009
• Denny Hamlin in 2010, 2019
• Kyle Busch in 2013, 2016, 2018
• Joey Logano in 2014
• Jimmie Johnson in 2015, 2017

Six previous winners will take the field on Sunday: Kenseth, Newman, Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Logano and Johnson.

NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Betting Odds

The following NASCAR betting odds are courtesy of DraftKings:

• Kevin Harvick (+350)
• Denny Hamlin (+650)
• Kyle Busch (+650)
• Chase Elliott (+900)
• Martin Truex Jr (+900)
• Ryan Blaney (+900)
• Brad Keselowski (+1000)
• Joey Logano (+1000)
• Aric Almirola (+1800)
• Jimmie Johnson(+2500)
• Kurt Busch (+2500)
• Alex Bowman (+3300)
• Erik Jones (+3300)
• Matt DiBenedetto (+3300)
• William Byron (+4000)
• Clint Bowyer (+5000)
• Christopher Bell(+8000)
• Tyler Reddick (+8000)
• Austin Dillon (+10000)
• Cole Custer (+10000)
• Matt Kenseth (+10000)
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+12500)
• Ryan Newman (+12500)

Betting Favorites at Texas

According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 this Sunday:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Kevin Harvick	3	11	22	15.7	10.4	1
Denny Hamlin	3	7	13	13.7	13.8	1
Kyle Busch	3	12	15	14.3	11.6	0
Chase Elliot	0	2	5	16.9	11.0	0
Martin Truex Jr.	0	4	16	14.7	13.5	4

Kevin Harvick (+350)

The 2020 season has become a playground for Kevin Harvick. Each week, he seems to find a way to finish in the Top 10 and extend his overall lead in the standings. Currently, he’s up by 88 points over second place Brad Keselowski.

Harvick has five straight Top 10s on the season, four straight Top 4s, and has won two of the last four races. Last weekend, he finished 4^th in Kentucky and also led 11 laps. He has the most Top 5s (10) and Top 10s (14) on the season and is 1^st in Playoff points.

Harvick will head into Texas as a large betting favorite due to his past success at this track and his current momentum on the season.

Harvick has three wins at TMS and they’ve come in the last five races at this track. Furthermore, he has 11 straight Top 10 finishes and is tied for the most Top 10s (22) among all drivers. Harvick’s 10.4 average finish is third best overall.

Although he’s won at this track on three different occasions, Harvick has never won this particular race. Yet, he does have a 5.2 average finish over the last five spring Texas races.

Harvick is a good bet to finish inside the Top 10 (-670), inside the Top 5 (-200), and should also be a Top 3 (-125) car this weekend. None of these odds offer much value. In all likelihood, if you want to bet on Harvick, it’s best to take him to win the race. He’s certainly the car to beat.

Denny Hamlin (+650)

Since winning at Pocono three races ago, Hamlin has had two subpar performances with a 28^th place finish at Indy and a 12^th place finish at Kentucky last weekend, which also was the first time he hasn’t led laps in six races.

Hamlin has fallen to 6^th in the standings, but is tied with Harvick for most wins (4), has the second most Top 5s (9), and is third in Top 10s (10). He’s also second in Playoff points.

Like Harvick, Hamlin has won at Texas on three different occasions. He’s also won this race twice including last year. For his career, Hamlin has seven Top 5s, 13 Top 10s, a 13.8 average finish which is 9^th best, and 1 DNF.

Despite winning the 2019 edition of this race, Hamlin has had some rough performances at TMS over the last three years. In the last six TMS races, Hamlin has four finishes outside of the Top 25 and just two Top 5s.

With his recent subpar performances and his inconsistent finishes at this track over the last three years, I’m not confident in Hamlin winning this race or finishing in the Top 3 (+165). He does have the potential to finish in the Top 5 (+100).

I’m confident in Hamlin finishing in the Top 10 (-360), but those odds offer no value at all. For Hamlin fans out there, I would skip him this weekend unless you want to take a flier on a Top 5 finish.

Kyle Busch (+650)

Another race and another weekend where Kyle Busch made me look like a fool. I begrudgingly took him to win last weekend in Kentucky and he not only let me down, but finished 21^st overall. I said last weekend if he lost, then I wasn’t taking him to win anymore. And, that’s my stance for the foreseeable future.

Busch has fallen to 11^th in the standings and has a pitiful 14.6 average finish on the year with zero wins. If it weren’t for his seven Top 5s and nine Top 10s, he would barely be inside the Top 16, which is the cutoff line for the Playoffs.

With that said, Busch needs to turn things around this weekend and he definitely has a chance to do so. Busch has won at Texas three times and all of those victories came in this race. His last win at TMS in the spring was 2018.

In 28 career starts at TMS, Busch also has 12 Top 5s, 15 Top 10s, 11.6 average finish which is 6^th best, and zero DNFs.

Busch should be able to finish well within the Top 10, but I think his ceiling is a Top 5 (+105) result. I’m not sure he can be a Top 3 (+175) car this weekend, but he has the potential.

With that said, until Busch wins a race, I would be very cautious when betting on the #18 car.

Chase Elliott (+900)

Like Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott had a poor performance at Kentucky last weekend as he finished 23^rd. That dropped him two spots in the standings to 4^th overall. He’s also only led laps in one of the last four races.

Elliott does have a win, which came at Charlotte, but he’s been very inconsistent over the last five races. This doesn’t include his victory in the All-Star race on Wednesday, July 15^th.

At Texas, Elliott has five Top 10s in eight starts, which is a 62.5% rate. His 11.0 average finish is 5^th best among active drivers. Yet, 2019 wasn’t a good year for the #9 car at TMS. He finished 13^th in this race last year and 32^nd in the fall race.

Elliott’s best finish in the spring TMS race came in 2016 when he was 5^th overall. I believe that a Top 5 (+130) result will be his ceiling this weekend. However, I don’t see him as a Top 3 car (+225). It’s a good bet that Elliott will return to the Top 10 (-275) on Sunday, but these odds have no value.

Of the favorites, Harvick, Busch and Hamlin are all better options this weekend than Elliott.

Martin Truex Jr (+900)

Like Elliott, Truex Jr. hasn’t had a great deal of success at TMS. In 29 starts at this track, he’s yet to win a race. He does have 16 Top 10s and a 13.5 average finish, which is 8^th best among drivers. However, he leads the favorites with four DNFs.

Truex hasn’t cracked the Top 5 at TMS since the fall of 2017. He hasn’t finished in the Top 5 in this race since 2013. These are concerning trends that can’t be ignored this weekend.

On the season, Truex sits 7^th in the standings even though he finished 2^nd last weekend at Kentucky. That was his best finish since winning at Martinsville six races prior. His inconsistency on the season also is concerning. The #19 car only has three Top 5s in 17 races. He has just as many DNFs on the year.

A Top 10 (-225) finish is doable for Truex at TMS, but I think a Top 5 (+150) result is his ceiling. I don’t see Truex winning this race or finishing in the Top 3 (+275).

The Best O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 due to their current betting odds, their past success at the Texas Motor Speedway, and their 2020 season so far:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Kurt Busch	1	3	21	13.7	14.2	2
Erik Jones	0	3	5	13.1	9.4	0
Clint Bowyer	0	4	12	16.4	15.5	2

Kurt Busch (+2500)

Kurt Busch has been a perennial Top 10 car this season with 10 Top 10s in 17 races and an 11.4 average finish. Busch is tied with Hamlin for the 3^rd most Top 10s on the year.

He currently sits 10^th in the driver standings, which is one spot higher than his brother. Yet, he’s 12^th in Playoff points. Last weekend, Kurt Busch finished 5^th at Kentucky, which was his first in the last 10 races.

At TMS, Busch has one win, three Top 5s, 21 Top 10s which is second most among drivers, a 14.2 average finish and 2 DNFs. He has six straight Top 10s and nine in the last 10 TMS races.

Busch’s value is in his Top 10 (-110) odds for this race. That’s almost an even return on investment, which is great for a driver with the 2^nd most Top 10s all-time at this track. He has an 8.5 average finish over the last six TMS races and was 9^th here last year.

I don’t see Busch finishing in the Top 3 (+600). However, a Top 5 (+340) would be his ceiling just like in Kentucky.

Erik Jones (+3300)

Guess who has the best average finish at TMS. Ok, I’ll tell you – it’s Erik Jones. In seven starts, Jones has three Top 5s, five Top 10s, and a 9.4 average finish. He has five straight Top 10 finishes and three Top 4s in the last four races. Jones was 4^th in this race last year.

I love Jones’ value with a Top 10 (+100) finish. That’s a tremendous return on investment. With that said, I don’t see a Top 3 (+700) and I’m not sure he can crack the Top 5 (+375).

A boy, his dog, and a @TXMotorSpeedway trophy. 🏆#TBT pic.twitter.com/hjeG7fWJTW

— Erik Jones (@Erik_Jones) July 16, 2020

Jones has had two poor finishes over the last two weeks with a 33^rd at Indy and a 22^nd at Kentucky. He has just two Top 5s and two Top 10s in the last eight races on the season. Jones sits 18^th in the standings.

If it weren’t for his subpar season so far, I would say Jones is a good bet for Top 5, but let’s play it safe here and go with the appealing Top 10 value.

Clint Bowyer (+5000)

The veteran Clint Bowyer is mired in a poor season where he has just two Top 5s and five Top 10s in 17 starts. Fortunately for the #14 car, he’s buoyed in the standings with two stage wins that have him 13^th overall and 11^th in Playoff points.

Last weekend, Bowyer finished 14^th in Kentucky. Over his last four races, Bowyer has an 11.25 average finish which is an improvement over his 15.3 average finish on the season.

I don’t see Bowyer winning this race or finishing in the Top 3 (+1400) and Top 5 (+700). I believe Bowyer’s value this weekend is with a Top 10 (+175) result.

Last year, Bowyer finished 2^nd in this race and 11^th in the fall. He also led laps in both races. Bowyer has a 7.3 average finish in the last three O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 races and I think he can continue that trend this weekend.

The Top Longshot to Win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

Matt Kenseth (+10000) is my longshot pick this weekend. Not because of his current season, but because of his past success at this track. Like all longshots, there’s good and bad factors to consider.

Three years. Three Texas wins. 🤠 Tap the ❤️ if you think @KevinHarvick will get it done again on Sunday.#TBT // #NASCAR // #SHRacing pic.twitter.com/L14ASeEiRp

— Stewart-Haas Racing (@StewartHaasRcng) July 16, 2020

Let’s start with the bad. Kenseth finished 25^th last weekend in Kentucky and has a 19.8 average finish on the year. He has more finishes outside of the Top 20 than he does Top 5s and Top 10s combined. He also hasn’t raced at TMS in three years.

Now, to the good. Kenseth has won the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 race twice in his career with the last victory coming in 2011. He has the 2^nd most Top 5s at this track with 14 and the second best average finish of 9.5, which is just one tenth below Erik Jones.

In his last four TMS races, Kenseth has an average finish of 9.5. I don’t see Kenesth winning or being in the Top 3 (+1200) or Top 5 (+650). But, he has betting value as a Top 10 (+150) play. His longshot value is with a Top 5 result.

O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Checkered Flag

My Top 5 drivers this weekend are the Busch brothers, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin. But, you could substitute Chase Elliott for any of these drivers other than Harvick and Logano.

I didn’t mention Joey Logano (+1100) above, but he’s a solid contender for the checkered flag this weekend. Logano won this race in 2014, has 10 Top 5s in 23 races and a 14.0 average finish which is 10^th best.

Over the last six years at TMS, Logano has seven Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and the one win. Last year he was 17^th in this race and 4^th in the fall. Over the last six O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 races, Logano has a 5.6 average finish. That’s right up there with Harvick at 5.2. Logano offers solid value with Top 3 (+300) and Top 5 (+165) odds.

I think this race will come down to Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick and possibly Kyle Busch. As I mentioned, I’m not taking Kyle Busch again until he wins at least one race this year. Logano has only one Top 10 in the last six races on the season, which concerns me.

#NASCAR | #FordFact#Ford leads all manufacturers with 9 @NASCAR Cup Series wins this season, just 1 less than it had last year. pic.twitter.com/zpBr7ddgB6

— Ford Performance (@FordPerformance) July 12, 2020

Although Logano can certainly turn things around this weekend by taking the checkered flag, the smart play here is on Kevin Harvick to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 and collect his 5^th victory on the season.

My Top 5 Drivers

• Kevin Harvick
• Kyle Busch
• Kurt Busch
• Joey Logano
• Denny Hamlin

O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR prop bets are courtesy of DraftKings:

Car Number of Race Winner

• Even (-240)
• Odd (+175)

Of the betting favorites, only two of them are even numbered cars: Harvick (4) and Kyle Busch (18). However, even numbered cars have won seven of the last eight O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 races. Additionally, I believe Joey Logano (22) will also be a legit contender this weekend.

The odds betting option is worthy of a small flier due to Hamlin (11), Kurt Busch (1), Truex (19), and Elliott (9). But, the smart money is with the even betting option.

Car Number of Race Winner

• Over 11.5 (-105)
• Under 11.5 (-125)

This prop bet is a little more difficult to pick than the even/odd one above. There are legitimate contenders for each:

• Over 11.5: Kyle Busch (18), Truex (19), Jones (20) and Logano (22)
• Under 11.5: Kurt Busch (1), Harvick (4), Elliott (9) and Hamlin (11)

Since I’m taking Harvick to win this weekend, and Hamlin is the second best driver on the season, I’m taking Under 11.5 for this prop bet. However, if you want to hedge your bets, go with the Over 11.5 while taking Harvick to win the race.

Manufacturer of Race Winner

• Ford (+125)
• Toyota (+175)
• Chevrolet (+250)

Chevy is the longshot this weekend, but it does have six wins at this track with the last victory coming in 2017 when Jimmie Johnson won. Chevy has two wins in the last five races.

Toyota has won three of the last four O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 races including two in a row with Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Toyota has five career wins in the spring TMS race and offers solid value.

Ford has the most wins in this spring TMS race with 10. However, Ford hasn’t won since 2014 when Joey Logano took a shortened race. Since Logano and Harvick are two of my Top 3 drivers this weekend, I like Ford for this prop bet.

However, there’s a wonderful opportunity for hedging your bets this weekend. In fact, I really like this one. Take Harvick to win the race at +350 odds and then follow that up with taking Toyota at +175 odds. That covers all of the favorites like: Logano, Harvick, Hamlin and Kyle Busch.

Team of Race Winner

• Joe Gibbs Racing (+180)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+225)
• Hendrick Motor Sports (+400)
• Team Penske (+400)
• Chip Ganassi Racing (+1600)
• Any Other Team (+2000)
• Richard Childress racing (+5000)
• Roush Fenway Racing (+8000)
• JTG Daughtery Racing (+10000)

Roush Fenway Racing (+8000) has won this race seven times, but not since 2012 when Greg Biffle won. Unfortunately, I don’t see this team being a factor on Sunday. Instead, I believe it will come down to the three top teams: JGR, Stewart-Haas, and Team Penske.

Joe Gibbs Racing (+180) has won this race five times including two in a row. Kyle Busch has won this race three times and Denny Hamlin has won this race twice. Both drivers are among the betting favorites this weekend.

Team Penske (+400) offers solid betting value with Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney all doing well this season. In fact, Keselowski and Blaney sit second and third in the driver standings while Logano is 5^th. However, only Logano has won at this track before.

Ultimately, since I think Harvick will win this race, I am going with Stewart-Haas Racing (-225) for this prop bet. Unless Logano or Kyle Busch can edge out the #4 car this weekend, I expect a dominant performance by Kevin Harvick as he picks up his 5^th win of the season.

O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Betting Recap

Betting Value:

• Kurt Busch (+2500)
• Erik Jones (+3300)
• Clint Bowyer (+5000)

Winner

• Kevin Harvick (+350)

Longshot

• Matt Kenseth (+10000)