US Senate Props: Will Democrats Flip Either Georgia Senate Seat in January?

Now that the US presidential election is in the rearview mirror, the political spotlight will now shift to the state of Georgia. That’s because we will have a pair of runoff elections that will determine the winners of both of Georgia’s up-for-grabs seats in the US Senate.

As of this writing, Republicans hold a 50-48 majority in the Senate. Incumbents that were seen as vulnerable in last week’s election, including Joni Ersnt, Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Dan Sullivan, all managed to win re-election. The Democrats were able to pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Colorado to narrow the margin, however.

With both of Georgia’s seats on the line, however, the aforementioned runoffs will ultimately decide which party holds power for at least the next two years. Both seats are currently occupied by Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue. If their Democratic challengers are able to flip both seats, we’ll have a 50-50 Senate split.

Credited with boosting Democrats in Georgia, Stacey Abrams looks to the state’s two potential Senate runoff races. https://t.co/iA1VSJ5LGW

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) November 11, 2020

Because Joe Biden won the presidential election, however, a 50-50 split means that the Senate will essentially have a slight Democratic majority. That’s because Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will be the President of the Senate with the ability to break any tie in a vote, if necessary.

The Georgia runoffs are going to get no shortage of attention between now and January 5. Political betting sites have already put odds on both races, with both Republican incumbents having been installed as sizable favorites.

How will the runoffs affect the balance of power in the Senate? Is there any betting value to be had in either race? Let’s break it down.

Ossoff Looking to Upset Perdue

• David Perdue (R): -350
• Jon Ossoff (D): +225

Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff has run a very competitive campaign against the incumbent, David Perdue. Things got quite heated between the two at their most recent debate about a week before Election Day. It got so dicey for Perdue that he even decided to bail on their scheduled final debate.

Perdue jumped out to an early lead once votes started to be counted, but Ossoff has managed to whittle that lead down as more and more votes have come in. The race would go to a decisive runoff if neither candidate amassed at least 50 percent of the vote. As of this writing, Perdue holds a slight 49.7 percent to 48 percent edge.

Interestingly, Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel has accounted for another 2.3 percent of the vote. It’ll be fascinating to see where those voters go now that Hazel is out of the race. Libertarians are essentially alternate versions of Republicans, though, so that could wind up helping Perdue in his quest for re-election.

Sen. Perdue & Sen. Loeffler, candidates for the two US Senate runoffs in Georgia, just asked their fellow Republican Secretary of State to step down immediately after he and his staff reported NO major signs of voters issues or fraud. So far, every single claim has been debunked.

— Brendan Keefe (@BrendanKeefe) November 9, 2020

Democratic turnout in Georgia was massive in this election, just as it was everywhere else. However, against most of the odds, Georgia actually appears to be going for Biden, who currently holds a lead of over 14,000 votes and counting. This was the first time since 1992 that a Democrat will have taken the state in a presidential race.

Donald Trump’s lack of popularity is evident based on how the race panned out. A number of down-ballot Republicans wound up faring better than the incumbent presidential candidate across a few different states. While Georgia is headed for a pair of runoffs, it’s still noteworthy that Perdue will likely have gotten more votes than Ossoff despite Trump having lost the Peach State to Biden.

Ossoff is a fine value at +225, but he seems to be facing quite the uphill climb against the incumbent.

Can Warnock Stave Off Loeffler?

• Kelly Loeffler (R): -220
• Raphael Warnock (D): +155

Unlike Ossoff, Democrat Raphael Warnock actually earned more votes than his opponent, Kelly Loeffler, during the general election. Warnock has received nearly 33 percent of the vote, compared to about 26 percent for Loeffler. However, let’s not forget that there were more than 20 candidates in this particular race, so the vote share is more widely distributed.

This race also involved Doug Collins, a Republican Congressman that earned nearly 20 percent of the vote himself. With Collins bowing out of the race, it’s fair to assume that most of the people that voted for him will simply move into Loeffler’s share for the runoff.

Get ready Georgia. The negative ads against us are coming.

But that won’t stop us from fighting for a better future for Georgians and focusing on the issues that matter. pic.twitter.com/VN0YIA02MG

— Reverend Raphael Warnock (@ReverendWarnock) November 5, 2020

Turnout will be key, of course. This general election shattered every record for nationwide turnout, and it’s worth wondering whether the lack of a presidential race will negatively affect turnout for the runoff. Voters came out in droves to support Biden or Trump, and down-ballot candidates wound up reaping the benefits.

It’s also worth noting that, unlike Perdue, Loeffler is not an elected incumbent. Loeffler was appointed to this seat by Georgia’s Republican Governor, Brian Kemp, to replace retiring Republican Johnny Isakson last year. Voters didn’t put Loeffler in the Senate in the first place, so we can wonder whether voters will have enough enthusiasm to keep her there now that she’s actually on the ballot for the first time.

While Loeffler should be able to attract many of those that voted for Collins, there were also several Democratic candidates that should flock to Warnock for the runoff. Democratic candidates Deborah Jackson (6.6 percent), Matt Lieberman (2.8 percent), and Jamesia James (1.9 percent) all ate into Warnock’s vote share during the general election.

Will Either Underdog Win?

As you can see, the Republicans are both sizable favorites to keep their seats in January. Turnout will likely prove to be the ultimate deciding factor. Republican voters may be motivated to try and keep the Senate red now that Biden has won the White House. Democratic voters may be motivated to try and earn the Democrats the majority in the Senate so that Biden’s administration will actually be able to pass legislation once he replaces Trump in the Oval Office.

Will turnout be as high for the runoff as it was in the general election? Unlikely. The absence of Trump and Biden on the ballot will presumably be enough to keep some voters at home. Lower turnout is something that historically favors Republicans.

Will there be some split-ticket voters? It’s possible, but it’s hard to imagine too many voters taking that path. At this point, it’s easy to see why Perdue is a heavier favorite than Loeffler. He was actually elected to his post, and his time in office hasn’t been marred by as many public red flags as Loeffler’s has.

Senator Loeffler Discloses Additional Millions In Stock Sales, Inflaming Insider Trading Suspicions WOW #Georgia 😱 #uspoli https://t.co/ehyEZFf1XW

— albertarabbit 🌎 (@albertarabbit) November 9, 2020

Earlier this year, Loeffler was implicated in an insider trading scandal that came about as a result of the pandemic. Loeffler denied any involvement in the scheme, and the Department of Justice ultimately dropped their investigation.

Loeffler has always looked like the more vulnerable sitting Senator, while Warnock seems to be a more threatening challenger than Ossoff does. Collins voters shifting their allegiance to Loeffler may be enough to ultimately allow her to keep her seat, but I like the value you can get on Reverend Warnock at +155.

Perdue and Loeffler have hitched their respective wagons to President Trump. Whether they can parlay Trump’s claims of election fraud into a win in January obviously remains to be seen. Of all four candidates vying for power, Warnock at +155 looks like the best betting value on the board.