Pick: Celtics +4
Odds: -115
$100 Could Win You…$186.96
The Utah Jazz have been the dominant force in the NBA for much of the 2020-21 season. Some other teams are sneaking up behind them of late as the Jazz have endured a bit of a mediocre stretch. That’s one of the reasons that their matchup with the Boston Celtics is shaping up to be a valuable odds matchup for online sportsbooks on Tuesday night.
Utah has only gone 5-5 over the last ten games, and their road record of 12-8 is a lot less impressive than their mark at home of 16-2, which is the league’s best. It’s important to note that the 5-5 in their last ten might be a bit of bad luck, as they have a +5.8 points differential in those contests. They’ve also feasted on the East so far this season, going 15-4.
As for Boston, they continue to be strictly middle of the pack, a big disappointment considering how touted they were at the beginning of the year. They’re 1-1 since the All-Star Break, with a loss to the powerful Nets and a win over the lowly Rockets seeming like a pretty good indicator of the middle ground Boston occupies right now. A convincing win against the league’s best team, however, could be a momentum boost for the Celtics, currently sitting tied for 5th in the East.
Moneyline Betting Odds
| Team |
|
|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +140 |
| Utah Jazz | -160 |
Spread Betting Odds
| Team |
|
|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +4 -115 |
| Utah Jazz | -4 -105 |
Over/Under Betting Odds
| Team |
|
|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | O 228.5 -110 |
| Utah Jazz | U 228.5 -110 |
Injury Report
One of the reasons that Utah has been so dominant is that they’ve been blissfully unbothered by injury concerns this season. That has meant a stable rotation that Quin Snyder has rarely altered.
In a year when so many other teams are dealing with absences from both injuries and health and safety protocols, the continuity the Jazz have enjoyed is invaluable. With the exception of little-used big man Udoka Azubuike, they’ll be ready to roll tonight.
Boston has not enjoyed that same kind of good fortune:
NBA top 5, wins lost due to injured players (Lost-ws metric, lost win shares due to injured players)
1 BRK 6.63 wins lost
2 OKC 5.58
3 POR 4.86
4 MIA 4.45
5 BOS 4.41https://t.co/ZXYQcQCzmd— Man Games Lost NBA (@ManGamesLostNBA) March 3, 2021
But they are finally up to full strength now (with the exception of Romeo Langford, who likely wouldn’t have cracked the rotation anyway.) Defensive stopper Marcus Smart returned following the All-Star Break. Coupled with Kemba Walker finally being able to play his full contingent of minutes of late, Boston is finally looking like the roster they envisioned.
You have to remember that Boston’s depth was a big question mark heading into the year. The injuries put a spotlight on that weakness. That’s why them being at full-strength, for however long it lasts, makes a big difference on their outlook going forward.
The Last Time They Met
It’s probably not a good sign that the Jazz handled Boston 122-108 back in February in a game in which they were missing point guard Mike Conley. They simply inserted Joe Ingles, and he went off to the tune of 24 points. In particular, he hurt Boston with 9 of 10 free throws, which you wouldn’t think would happen with a guy who loves on the perimeter.
But the guy who really did the damage was Donovan Mitchell. The Jazz superstar has been brilliant this season, and his game against the Celtics was one of his high points. He rolled the Celts for 36 points and 9 assists, with some late threes that pretty much finished the deal:
Utah also did an excellent job on two of the Celtics Big 3 weapons. Jaylen Brown got his with 33, but both Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker struggled from the field. Tatum was just 7 for 20, while Walker mustered an ugly 2 for 12 shooting line.
For Walker, that’s been a recurring theme. He’s shooting under 40 percent from the field for the year. And it’s not like things have improved with his health, as he’s at 39.4 percent in four contests so far this month.
Boston needs all three operating on all cylinders. The Jazz make it tough on anybody with their defense, as they can cheat out to three-point shooters knowing that Rudy Gobert can erase any mistakes. For the Celtics to succeed in this one, Walker will need to overcome that and come up with a vintage effort.
Deeper and Deeper
The good news for Boston is that they’re starting to develop a deep enough rotation to keep from getting worn down against a team like the Jazz. Marcus Smart’s return has been welcome. Although he’s only averaged 20 minutes in his first two games back, he gives the team the gritty perimeter defense that will help against Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson.
When you play the Jazz, the other big concern is handling Rudy Gobert inside. The guy is coming off a ridiculous 24-point, 28-rebound game in his last contest. But Boston might be better equipped to handle him now that they have their own Gobert-ish player inside in Robert Williams.
For a few seasons, Williams has been tantalizing Celtics fans with occasional brilliance. But in recent weeks, it’s really been coming together for him as a weapon off the Boston bench. His defensive presence (6 rebounds, 1.6 blocks and 0.9 steals in just 16 minutes per game) is huge, and he’s one of the league’s best alley-oop weapons:
Williams missed time earlier this year with COVID, and it took him a while to ramp back up. Brad Stevens has talked about getting him to his maximum level of playing time as the postseason approaches. A matchup against Gobert would be a good place to start that process.
What’s the Best Bet?
If you look at the records, you might think that the Jazz are the easy pick here. But the Celtics are actually 3-1 against the spread as a home underdog this year, while Utah is only 10-8 as a road favorite. Those aren’t overwhelming trends, but they even this contest out more than you might think.
The feeling here is that Boston will start to show some signs of life against a Jazz team that isn’t nearly as overpowering away from home. Smart’s presence will make a difference. Boston has a good chance of winning this game outright, let alone covering the spread.
Jim Beviglia
Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h …
