2020 TDF Updated Odds: Roglic vs Pogacar, Green Jersey Battle, and More

On Monday, September 14^th, the Tour de France riders and teams get to enjoy their second rest day of this prestigious Grand Tour. It also also marks the final week of the race and serves as a launching pad into the hardest stages of the 2020 TDF.

In this article, we’ll take a look at the updated odds for all of the jersey competitions via the best Tour de France betting sites, preview the remaining stages, and revisit some of our cycling wagers recommended before the Grand Depart.

🏆 🇸🇮 @TamauPogi wins the stage!

🏆🇸🇮 @TamauPogi s’impose au Grand Colombier !#TDF2020 #TDFunited pic.twitter.com/CWzjI7px1x

— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) September 13, 2020

Who Will Win Stage 16?

Tuesday’s Stage 16 takes riders from the second rest day into the Alps where there’s five categorized climbs for the day and an uphill finish at Villard de Lans.

The race will be animated right away as team BORA-Hansgrohe will put the field to the limits as they go up a Cat-4 climb and try to get to the sprint points line at the 44.5km mark. This is so Sagan can close the gap on Bennett’s lead for the green jersey.

From there, it will be teams of the GC contenders controlling the race as the field crosses over two Category 2 climbs, a Cat-1 climb and finishes on a Cat-3 climb.

Cycling betting sites have listed the following riders as the betting favorites for this Stage 16:

• Julian Alaphilippe (+1000)
• Marc Hirschi (+1000)
• Tadej Pogacar (+1200)
• Daniel Martinez (+1400)
• Richard Carapaz (+1600)
• Michal Kwiatkowski (+1600)
• Primoz Roglic (+1600)

If the field is able to stay together then it will be one of the top GC riders that wins the stage. However, there’s also a chance that the breakaway survives to win Stage 16.

So, you have two scenarios to consider here: breakaway or the select bunch.

If you believe it’s a breakaway then riders like March Hirschi (+1000), Pierre Roland (+3300), Thomas De Gendt (+5000), and Neilson Powless (+12500) are riders to consider.

If you think that the cream of the crop in the field will stick together until the end, then look at riders like Tadej Pogacar (+1200), Primoz Roglic (+1600), and Egan Bernal (+4000) to win the stage.

This year’s Tour de France has been entertaining every stage and I see that continuing following the final rest day. I’m leaning towards the GC group catching any breakaway and finishing of the stage with a win.

Look for someone breaking from the select group of riders at the end to get the win. That could be someone like Alaphilippe or even Adam Yates.

Previewing Stage 17 and Beyond

Stage 16 is the first and easiest of the three days in the Alps. Stage 17 is the day that many had pegged as the hardest stage of the race as riders have to go over two HC climbs and finish on the summit of Meribel Col de la Loze. You can expect this stage to blow up the field and for the best of the best to finish first.

Stage 18 features five category climbs including two Cat-1s and an HC. Whoever survived Stage 17 will be on their limits for this day. I fully expect for the GC to be down to just Pogacar and Roglic by the end of this stage with a day for the sprinters on Stage 19.

Stage 20 should determine who wins the Yellow Jersey as we have a 36km time trial up a Cat-1 climb – La Plance Des Belles Filles.

Stage 21 is the final day of the Tour de France and it’s a celebratory entrance into Paris and onto the Champs-Elysees. Typically, this is a day for the sprinters. However, if the green jersey competition is still up for grabs then this day could close out the 2020 TDF with plenty of fireworks.

Who Will Win the White Jersey?

• Tadej Pogacar (-1400)
• Enric Mas Nicolau (+700)
• Egan Bernal (+2000)

As you can see by the odds, Tadej Pogacar is an overwhelming favorite to win the best Young Rider classification at this year’s Tour.

Heading into the final week of the race, Pogacar is up by 2 ½ minutes on 2^nd place Enric Mas and nearly eight minutes ahead of Egan Bernal.

I had initially picked Bernal to beat out Pogacar for this jersey, but the 2019 TDF winner cracked in the mountains and his hopes for both the yellow and the white jerseys are over with.

The young Slovenian Tadej Pogacar will run away with this competition as the final week unfolds.

Do We Really Have a King of the Mountains?

• Tadej Pogacar (+400)
• Pierre Rolland (+450)
• Primoz Roglic (+650)
• Marc Hirschi (+1100)
• Daniel Martinez (+1200)

Currently, Benoit Cosnefroy leads this competition by two points over Tadej Pogacar and by three points over Primoz Roglic. Marc Hirschi sits 6^th just five points down and Pierre Rolland sits 6^th at 26 points in the polka dot competition.

I’ve stated from the beginning that the KOTM classification could be won by a GC contender due to how many climbs and mountain stages there were. As you see, three of the five betting favorites were contenders for the podium before the Tour started.

Call me crazy, but I like Pierre Rolland for this competition now. I originally picked Adam Yates to win then I changed it to Nairo Quintana after the first rest day. Yet, I also said I would probably change it again. And, that’s what I’m doing.

I think we will see Pierre Rolland and Marc Hirschi battle for this jersey as they have looked strong in the mountains and love to get into the breakaways.

Whenever a Frenchman has a shot at any jersey in the TDF, they will go for it. It’s still a badge of honor considering how they’re unable to win the overall general classification. With that said, I’m taking Pierre Rolland to win the polka dot jersey.

Will It Be Bennett or Sagan to Win the Green Jersey?

• Sam Bennett (-175)
• Peter Sagan (+150)
• Mateo Trentin (+1800)
• Wout Van Aert (+2500)

This has been the best green jersey competition in the last two decades and quite possibly ever. Not since 2001 have we seen a battle like this where two riders fought all the way to Paris for the jersey. That year, Stuart O’Grady ended up losing the green jersey on the final stage to Erik Zabel.

This year, Sam Bennett and Peter Sagan have been locked in a battle for the ages. The difference between the 2020 TDF and the 2001 TDF green jersey battles is just how much the points classification is impacting the overall race.

After his maiden Tour de France stage win earlier this week, Sam Bennett continues to don the green jersey as we head into the final week. #Wahooligan

👤 : @deceuninck_qst #TDF2020 #cycling #InMyELEMNT pic.twitter.com/Ess7SaIzKQ

— Wahoo Fitness (@wahoofitness) September 13, 2020

In 2001, Lance Armstrong was in the midst of his sever year domination. So, his Team Postal controlled the race on every stage and the squads of O’Grady and Zabel had little impact on non-sprint stages.

This year, Peter Sagan’s BORA-Hansgrohe is launching an assault on every stage in order for Sagan to get green jersey points at intermediate sprints and at the finishing lines. It has made the overall race harder on the riders, but very exciting for the fans.

Currently, Sagan is 45 points behind Bennett with three straight mountain stages following the second rest day.

All three stages in the Alps have sprint points along the way, so you can expect Sagan’s team to come out at a max speed as soon as the stage starts. They will look to crack Bennett and pick up the maximum amount of sprint points available before each day’s massive climbs.

I’ve said it once, I’ve said it twice, and I will say it a third time – until someone actually beats Sagan in the points classification, you have to take the seven time winner to capture his 8^th green jersey all-time.

Who Wins the All Slovenian Battle for the Yellow Jersey: Pogacar or Roglic?

• Primoz Roglic (-350)
• Tadej Pogacar (+250)
• Richie Porte (+4000)
• Miguel Angel Lopez (+4000)
• Mikel Landa (+5000)
• Rigoberto Uran (+5000)
• Adam Yates (+8000)
• Nairo Quintana (+15000)
• Egan Bernal (+20000)

Heading into the final week of the 2020 Tour de France, Primoz Roglic leads fellow countryman Tadej Pogacar by 40 seconds. Rigoberto Uran is 3^rd roughly 94 seconds behind. Miguel Angel Lopez is in 4^th at 1’45” behind and Adam Yates sits 5^th at 2’03” behind. Porte is 6^th at 2’13” behind.

You will notice that two pre-race favorites Nairo Quintana and Egan Bernal are now longshots to win the Tour. Quintana sits 9^th overall at 5’08” behind. Egan Bernal, the 2019 TDF winner and pre-race favorite for the 2020 TDF, is 13^th overall at 8’25” behind.

Both Colombians suffered in the mountains over the last few stages and lost time. They’re not going to be able to overcome these time gaps. However, they could still shoot for a podium finish which ultimately will be for 3^rd place as Roglic and Pogacar will finish 1-2.

Primoz Roglic and Tadej Pogacar have shown the rest of the Yellow Jersey competitors that they are the two best riders in this year’s Tour.

I picked Roglic to win this year’s Tour de France along with Pogacar and Bernal to finish on the podium. It looks like Bernal’s podium chances are on life support, but Pogacar should finish runner-up this year. However, he does still have a shot at the Yellow Jersey and it will be an epic battle this final week.

I’m sticking with Roglic to hold off Pogacar and win by probably 20 seconds, which will be the smallest time difference of the top two riders since 2007 when Alberto Contador beat Cadel Evans by 23 seconds.

The narrowest margin of victory was in 1989 when Greg Lemond beat Laurent Fignon by eight seconds.

Revisiting Our Five Best Tour de France Bets

As we did on the first rest day, let’s take a look at our five best bets for the 2020 TDF:

1. Wout Van Aert With a Top 3 Finish (+125) in the Green Jersey

WVA has fallen from 3^rd a week ago to 6^th in the points classification. However, if there’s an award for the most impressive rider in this year’s TDF, it’s Wout Van Aert. He also sits in the Top 25 for the GC which has shocked everyone.

WVA has a very slim chance of finishing 3^rd in this competition. It will all come down to whether or not Matteo Trentin, Bryan Coquart and Caleb Ewan can even finish the race. Sometimes, sprinters pull out of the Tour in the final week due to how hard it is in the Alps.

2. Egan Bernal to Win the White Jersey (-182)

The biggest disappointment award for this year’s TDF has to go to Egan Bernal. He’s nearly eight minutes down in the yellow jersey competition and almost three minutes down in the white jersey battle.

To make matters worse, it’s Tadej Pogacar who’s leading the Best Young Rider classification which means that Bernal has no chance at winning this competition now.

This wager has cracked like Bernal in the mountains.

3. Romain Bardet Finishes in Top 3 for KOTM

Romain Bardet was sitting 4^th overall in the General Classification with a shot at the podium and the KOTM competition. Unfortunately, he suffered a crash that left him concussed and eventually was forced to withdraw from the Tour de France.

Bardet was having a strong showing at this year’s Tour and became France’s top hope of finishing on the podium. Now, the hope for Bardet for a full recovery and then to tackle the Giro d’Italia or the Vuelta a Espana.

4. Team Jumbo-Visma to Win the Team Classification (+175)

At the first rest day, Team Jumbo-Visma sat 5^th in the team rankings roughly 17’07” back of Movistar Team. Currently, Jumbo-Visma is in 2^nd place just under 15 minutes back of Movistar.

There is still a chance that this wager hits as we have several tough mountain stages left ant Jumbo-Visma has showed that they’re the top team in this year’s Tour.

Furthermore, they have four riders in the Top 24 and three within the Top 17. Movistar has three riders in the Top 21. This bodes well for Jumbo-Visma throughout the next three mountain stages and the time trial on Stage 20.

The Team Classification is scored by the sum of each team’s top three riders per stage. For Jumbo-Visma, Roglic, Kuss and Dumoulin have proven to be three of the best climbers in this race. I expect all three to excel in the mountains this week.

Furthermore, Team Jumbo-Visma has three strong time trialists in Roglic, Dumoulin and Wout Van Aert. I believe if they can claw back enough time in the mountains then they will win this classification after the time trial on the second to the last day of the Tour.

5. Richard Carapaz to Finish in Top 10 for Yellow Jersey (-143)

Carapaz was 15^th after the first rest day sitting 3’42 back of the race leader. Unfortunately, he’s had a few crashes and bike issues that have caused him to lose a lot of time.

Currently, Carapaz sits 16^th overall at 32’55” back of Roglic. Additionally, he’s about 27 minutes behind 10^th place Tom Dumoulin.

Carapaz is a Grand Tour winner who came to help Egan Bernal win a second consecutive Tour de France. However, bad luck and bad conditioning in the mountains for both riders have crushed their hopes of a podium finish.

With that said, Carapaz will now be able to ride more freely and could get into a breakaway without Team Jumbo-Visma chasing him down. The odds of a Top 10 finish are slim to none, but I’m not ready to call this one dead yet. The Alps can crack any rider and there’s three days where Carapaz could make a move.

Who Will Finish on the Podium With Roglic and Pogacar?

It’s clear, barring a catastrophic crash, Primoz Roglic and Tadej Pogacar will finish 1-2 at this year’s Tour de France. Oddsmakers for the Tour de France favor Roglic to win the yellow jersey, but there are some pundits and fans who think Pogacar can win this year’s Tour.

With that said, the race for 3^rd place is on and there are numerous contenders for the final spot on the podium:

• Richie Porte (+137)
• Rigoberto Uran (+300)
• Mikel Landa (+350)
• Miguel Angel Lopez (+450)
• Adam Yates (+500)
• Nairo Quintana (+1400)
• Egan Bernal (+1600)

It would take a miracle for Bernal or Quintana to get the third spot from any of the riders listed above them in this prop bet and in the overall standings.

Richie Porte (+137)

I am really surprised that Porte is the favorite among the rest of the GC riders to finish on the podium. He finished 11^th last year and crashed out of the 2017 and 2018 TDF races.

Porte’s showed good form, but I feel he’s going to crack in the Alps and lose too much time to make up in the time trial on Saturday. However, if he’s within striking distance, Porte will surpass most of the GC contenders in the overall standings after the time trial.

Rigoberto Uran (+300)

Uran currently sits 3^rd in the standings roughly 11 seconds up on Miguel Angel Lopez. I like what Uran has been able to do so far, but he finished well behind Lopez, Porte, Landa and Yates for Stage 15. I believe he will have troubles in the Alps this week and he will lose time at the time trial also.

Mikel Landa (+350)

Landa has had three straight Top 7 finishes at the Tour de France and currently sits 7^th overall in the GC standings. He’s just three seconds behind 6^th place Richie Porte. He finished with Yates, Kuss and Mas on Stage 15 and showed that he has good legs heading into the final week.

I just don’t see Landa having the power to beat any of the Top 5 GC riders in the next three stages or the time trial. I believe he will fall further in the standings by time it’s all said and done.

Miguel Angel Lopez (+450)

This is Lopez’s first Tour de France and he sits 4^th overall. He’s a podium finisher in the Giro and the Vuelta and has never finished worse than 8^th in a Grand Tour except for his crashing out in 2016, which was his first time in the Vuelta.

The 26 year old has showed good form and an ability to hang in the mountains with the top climbers. He has a solid team (Astana) and I believe he has a better chance at the podium than Landa or Uran.

Adam Yates (+500)

Adam Yates currently sits 5^th in the standings roughly 10 seconds ahead of Porte and 18 seconds behind Lopez.

Yates’ plans for the tour was to win stages. However, he found himself in the yellow jersey for a few days and now has become an overall contender for the podium.

Yates has showed that he has the legs to hang with the best of the best. He even tried to attack Jumbo-Visma at the end of Stage 15, proving he was the only one feeling strong enough to do so.

With that said, I really like Yates’ form this year. He’s finished 4^th at the TDF back in 2016 and has the confidence to contend for the podium. Gone are his aspirations for stage wins, he’s now looking to cement a 3^rd place result for this year’s TDF.

The 3^rd Place Rider Will Be…

The yellow jersey tends to give some riders confidence, legs and wings to fly. That’s exactly what’s happened with Yates who appears to have gotten better as the Tour has gone on.

I like the Brit to outlast Uran, Lopez, Porte and Landa over the final week and to squeak out a podium finish.