NBA Player Futures: Will Zion Williamson Win Most Improved Player?

The 2020-21 NBA season tips off in less than a month. NBA betting sites are planning for the upcoming season accordingly. BetOnline is one of the many sites that has already posted a number of futures and prop betting options in anticipation of the new campaign.

While the truncated 72-game schedule this season may make things a bit wonky, it will be interesting to see what happens after such a short offseason for some teams. While the Lakers will have had barely two months of rest, teams like the Hawks and Warriors will have not played a game in over nine months by the time the new term gets started.

BetOnline is taking bets on certain individual awards, including MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and Rookie of the Year. You can also wager on which player will take home the Most Improved Player Award. New Orleans’ Brandon Ingram claimed the prize a season ago, and one of his teammates is among the favorites to do so in 2021.

With no player checking in with odds shorter than +1000, there is plenty of value to be found in betting on Most Improved Player. Which player looks like the best bet?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+1000)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander impressed as part of a three-headed backcourt monster for the Thunder last season, but this year he’ll be the only guy behind the wheel. Oklahoma City traded Dennis Schroder and Chris Paul within a week of one another, which means SGA will be running the show for the Thunder.

OKC won’t be crashing the playoff party this year, but Gilgeous-Alexander will put up numbers. SGA impressively averaged 19 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists a season ago for OKC with Paul and Schroder both hogging plenty of usage. With Danilo Gallinari and Steven Adams also gone, Gilgeous-Alexander is really the only remaining scoring threat in the lineup.

2019-2020 Thunder, only SGA remains from this graphic

The NBA is a wild place pic.twitter.com/xlBpCspC7A

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) November 24, 2020

As of now, the Thunder’s projected starting lineup consists of Gilgeous-Alexander, Al Horford, Darius Bazley, Luguentz Dort, and Hamidou Diallo. George Hill and Trevor Ariza are likely trade candidates. This will be one of the worst teams in basketball by design.

Who else on this roster is going to take shots?

Gilgeous-Alexander is a lock to average well over 20 points per game, and he’s going to command the lion’s share of the usage as the only proven commodity in the backcourt.

SGA is the betting favorite to win Most Improved Player at +1000 at basketball betting sites. At this point, it’s hard to argue against his candidacy.

Deandre Ayton (+1200)

The Suns are emerging as a trendy pick to make the playoffs after nabbing Chris Paul from OKC. Phoenix looks awfully appealing on paper now that Paul is there to help guide the team’s young core. Devin Booker finally has help in the backcourt.

Deandre Ayton gets overshadowed by Luka Doncic and Trae Young from the 2018 draft class, but the big man quietly enjoyed a solid season last year. Ayton averaged a double-double (18.2 points, 11.5 rebounds) in 38 games. His defense needs work, but Paul has made a career out of helping big men get easy buckets. Ayton may put up solid numbers again, but it’s hard to imagine him improving too much on last season’s output.

Players typically have to improve their numbers if they want to win Most Improved Player. Ayton has room for improvement, of course, but I think there’s a ceiling on how much tangible growth he will show next season. As a result, he looks like a pretty easy one to avoid at the current +1200 odds.

Michael Porter Jr. (+1200) and Jamal Murray (+1600)

A pair of Nuggets are next. Michael Porter Jr. looks like one of the most impressive young players in the league last season, and the sky is truly the limit on his offensive potential. Jamal Murray was arguably the most impressive player in the entire league during the Nuggets’ recent playoff run, but there is reason to wonder about whether he’s capable of replicating that form over the course of an entire season.

Mike Malone really has no choice but to throw Porter into a bigger role. The Nuggets lost Jerami Grant and Torrey Craig to free agency, while Paul Millsap is aging faster than Matt Damon.

Murray’s numbers have improved year-over-year, yet he’s still only 23 and entering his fifth NBA season. He was incredible during Denver’s run to the Western Conference Finals. If he shows up and puts up comparable stats this season, will voters be impressed enough to say he’s a worthy Most Improved Player candidate? Or will they instead cite his ascent having occurred last season?

I’m skeptical that Playoff Murray is the real version of Murray we’ll see moving forward. I also have doubts about whether any statistical improvements he enjoys this season will be written off as old hat after his playoff showing. A lot has to go right for Murray to win this award.

Zion Williamson (+1800)

Zion Williamson entered last season as a minus-money favorite to win Rookie of the Year. Those bets were effectively torpedoed when Zion tore his meniscus before last season even began.

He didn’t make his debut until January, but he was still impressive in a small sample. Williamson posted averages of 22.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game despite playing most of his rookie campaign on a strict minutes limit. The Pelicans played him just 27.8 minutes per game in an attempt to keep him healthy down the stretch.

Zion Williamson is currently the longest tenured member of the Pelicans 🤯 pic.twitter.com/jQ9pjluXeO

— Sporting News (@sportingnews) November 21, 2020

Williamson shot better than 58 percent from the floor with most of his buckets coming from within three feet of the rim. Williamson did connect on better than 42 percent of his three-point attempts on very low volume (0.6 attempts per game), as well. I’m not sure he’ll be much of a deep threat, but he showed that he’s fully capable of coexisting offensively with last year’s Most Improved Player, Brandon Ingram.

The Pelicans are expected to challenge for a playoff berth again with a new head coach in Stan Van Gundy. Van Gundy has always been good about putting his star players in positions to succeed, so I don’t doubt Zion’s ability to continue to improve. He could stand to improve his rebounding, while his defense needs some fine-tuning.

Williamson wasn’t the first pick in last year’s draft because of his fancy dunks. The Pelicans believe he’s got superstar potential.

If he makes the leap to All-Star status in his first full healthy season, why can’t he win Most Improved Player?

Just last year we saw Luka Doncic finish third in Most Improved voting after having already established himself as a star as a rookie the year prior.

Williamson is a very, very strong value here at +1800. The Pels should ramp his minutes up this season, and I expect Zion to do plenty of damage.

Long Shots

Christian Wood (+2000)

Christian Wood came on strong at the end of last season, but nobody noticed because he was doing his damage in a Pistons uniform. With Andre Drummond having been shipped out of town and Blake Griffin lost for the season due to injury, Wood thrived in a bunch of meaningless games down-the-stretch for Detroit.

The 25-year-old averaged 19.3 points and nine rebounds per game in February before posting averages of 26.6 points and 9.4 rebounds per game in March. He lost the last month of the campaign after the NBA went on its hiatus.

Still, he was able to parlay that showing into a three-year deal worth $41 million with the Rockets this offseason. We know James Harden and Russell Westbrook will do most of the damage offensively for Houston, but Wood will enter a season with a concrete NBA role for the first time.

He’s unlikely to average 20 and 10, but building off of last season’s successes could put Wood in the running for some hardware. You can do a lot worse given the +2000 odds on him.

Marvin Bagley (+2800)

The Kings appear to be as directionless as ever. De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield are both locked into long-term deals, but the jury is still out on what will become of Marvin Bagley. The springy big man has looked capable when healthy, but “when healthy” is the key phrase. He missed 20 games as a rookie before playing in just 13 games a season ago.

At this point, the Kings have no excuse not to give Bagley all the minutes he can handle. Alex Len and Harry Giles both left this offseason, which means Bagley will be sharing the frontcourt with the likes of Richaun Holmes, Hassan Whiteside, Nemanja Bjelica, and Frank Kaminsky. None of those guys factor into the Kings’ long-term future.

For his career, Bagley has averaged 21 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per 36 minutes. If he manages to stay healthy and post numbers even remotely comparable to those this season, he’ll be in the mix for Most Improved Player. Bagley isn’t a player that gets much buzz at this point, but I like the value at +2800.

Ben Simmons (+5000)

If you want long shot betting value, look no further than Ben Simmons at +5000. Simmons is already an established All-Star, but there is obvious room for growth in his game. He has posted excellent numbers across the board in each of his first three NBA seasons, but he hasn’t really improved in any area thus far.

I think that changes in his fourth campaign. The 76ers have finally gotten a new coach in Doc Rivers, while new GM Daryl Morey has finally supplied Simmons with a workable supporting cast. The Sixers now have ample shooting with the additions of Seth Curry and Danny Green, which should help open the floor around Simmons and Joel Embiid.

Dwight has high hopes for Ben Simmons. pic.twitter.com/9JnDCXwPZV

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 26, 2020

I am once again drinking the Sixers’ Kool-Aid heading into the new season. I think they’re a legitimate threat to win the Atlantic Division with the potential to push the Bucks for the top seed in the East. Simmons has already been an All-Star twice, but he has the ability to be a legitimate MVP candidate.

He has already shown improvement with regard to his shooting, and the Sixers’ new regime should be great for his continued development. I think Simmons makes for a great dark horse MVP betting option at +6600. You can also take a shot on his Most Improved Player odds at +5000.