NFC Playoff Scenarios: Will the Packers Lock up the Top Seed?

The AFC has dominated the Super Bowl in recent years. Since 2014, the Philadelphia Eagles are the only NFC team to have won the NFL championship. The Eagles’ 41-33 triumph over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 52 stopped a streak of three consecutive AFC Super Bowl champions. Since then, though, the Patriots and Chiefs have won back-to-back titles for the AFC.

The NFC has arguably been the deeper conference in recent years, but the conference has struggled to consistently get over the top. Teams like the Saints, Packers, Seahawks, and Rams will be looking to change the narrative this season. Three of the five teams with the shortest odds to win Super Bowl 55 are based in the NFC, so there is certainly a strong chance we see a shift at the top come February.

Entering Week 16, the Packers are the only NFC team to have clinched its division. The Saints and Seahawks have nabbed playoff berths, but neither has put a bow on their division title just yet. The NFC East, meanwhile, is a shameful disaster. Whichever team backs its way into the NFC East title will likely be little more than Wild Card Round fodder for one of the better Wild Card teams that come out of one of the other divisions.

The NFL has unveiled a number of playoff scenarios ahead of the Week 16 schedule. Which teams are good bets to make the playoffs this week?

Arizona Cardinals (8-6)

Cardinals Clinch Playoff Berth With:

• ARI win + CHI loss or tie OR
• ARI tie + CHI loss

The Arizona Cardinals are just 8-6 and in third place in the NFC West, but they have a pretty simple path to the playoffs entering the season’s penultimate week. All the Cardinals have to do is beat the 49ers at home on Saturday and hope the Chicago Bears fall at Jacksonville the next day.

The Bears have fallen flat after a promising start to the season, but a loss at Jacksonville isn’t the most likely outcome, of course. The Jags have lost 13 straight following their Week 1 upset win over the Colts. Jacksonville has cycled through three different starting quarterbacks over the course of their lengthy skid. The Bears, meanwhile, have perked up over the past few weeks since the return of Mitchell Trubisky, who has been far more effective than Nick Foles was earlier in the year.

The Cardinals are 4.5-point favorites at home against what has been an up-and-down Niners team. While Arizona is a good bet to pick up the win, relying on the Jags to win their game against the Bears is a fool’s errand.

Jacksonville, who is now in pole position to grab the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft, is a 7.5-point underdog at home on Sunday.

Arizona will likely have to wait until next week to punch their postseason ticket.

Green Bay Packers (11-3)

Packers Clinch No. 1 Overall Seed With:

• GB win + SEA loss or tie OR
• GB tie + NO loss or tie + SEA loss or tie, as long as both NO and SEA don’t tie

The Green Bay Packers snuck past the Panthers last Saturday night in order to pull into a lead for the top seed in the NFC. The win moved the Pack to 11-3 on the season, while the Saints fell to 10-4 after losing at home to the Chiefs. Now, all the Packers have to do is win both of their remaining games in order to secure that coveted first-round bye.

#Packers have 7️⃣ players selected to the 2021 #ProBowl!

📰: https://t.co/fv4ZLGSwAf#GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/ZUCuOvB9mx

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 22, 2020

Green Bay will play host to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday night, which has the makings of a shootout. The Packers are 3.5-point home favorites against a Titans team that has seemingly played a high-scoring game every single week. Green Bay should have no issue moving the ball against the Titans’ lackluster defense, but it remains to be seen whether they can slow down Derrick Henry.

The Packers should know what they have to do by the time they take the field on Sunday night. If the Seahawks lose or tie their home game against the Rams earlier Sunday afternoon, the Packers will lock up the top seed with a win over the Titans. Seahawks-Rams is shaping up to be the best game of the day with the NFC West title likely hanging in the balance. The Seahawks are 1.5-point favorites over a team that beat them in LA just a few weeks ago.

Los Angeles Rams (9-5)

Rams Clinch Playoff Berth With:

• LAR win or tie OR
• CHI loss or tie OR
• ARI win or tie

We don’t think the Bears are losing in Jacksonville this week, which means the Los Angeles Rams‘ path to the playoff depends on their ability to win Sunday’s aforementioned contest in Seattle. The Rams are fresh off of the most embarrassing loss any team has suffered all season after the Jets came into SoFi Stadium last week and came away with their first win of the year.

We’ll see what kind of mettle Sean McVay’s team has on Sunday. Either they’ll come out guns blazing after such a pathetic showing, or they’ll fold like a deck of cards with the Seahawks on the brink of a division championship.

The Rams’ vaunted defense shut down Russell Wilson and co. in their previous meeting earlier this season, so it’ll be interesting to see what kind of adjustments the Seahawks make in this one.

Even if the Rams don’t beat the Seahawks, they can sneak into the playoffs if the Cardinals manage to win their game on Saturday over San Francisco. While the NFC West title would still be up for grabs, the Rams knowing they’re in the playoffs well ahead of Sunday’s kickoff could take some pressure off of LA to get a result. Arizona is a -215 moneyline favorite at home, so the Rams are a good bet to be playoff-bound before they take the field on Sunday.

New Orleans Saints (10-4)

Saints Clinch NFC South Title With:

• NO win OR
• TB loss OR
• NO tie + TB tie

The New Orleans Saints came close to knocking off the Chiefs on Sunday, but they ultimately couldn’t overcome the slow start from Drew Brees. Brees, who played for the first time in over a month on Sunday due to a rib injury, will have to bounce-back in a short week this week. The Saints are slated to host the Minnesota Vikings on Friday in the NFL’s lone Christmas Day contest.

The Vikings have run hot and cold this season, but the Saints at home are almost always a safe bet. New Orleans will still be without Michael Thomas, but New Orleans is still favored by a touchdown at home here. The 6-8 Vikings haven’t officially been eliminated from playoff contention yet, but the clock is ticking. Minnesota was essentially dealt a fatal blow with a 33-27 loss to the Bears last time out.

A combined 488 yards passing and six touchdowns.

The @PatrickMahomes vs. @drewbrees showdown was fun. 👏 pic.twitter.com/kIP4KEsDtm

— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2020

If the Saints somehow come up short on Friday, they can still clinch the NFC South title if Tom Brady and the Bucs falter on Saturday afternoon in Detroit. The Bucs, who came from behind to topple the Falcons in Atlanta last week, are favored by 9.5 points against the Lions in the first game on Saturday’s schedule.

Obviously, the Saints’ best bet is to just get their win out of the way first. The Lions certainly can’t be expected to beat Tampa Bay this week, even if the Bucs have looked rather wobbly at times. The Vikings upset the Saints in New Orleans in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs last season. You can bet that’s something that hasn’t been lost on the Saints heading into this one.

Seattle Seahawks (10-4)

Seahawks Clinch NFC West With:

• SEA win

Win and you’re in. That’s what it comes down to for Pete Carroll’s crew this week. The Seattle Seahawks vaulted the Rams in the division standings last weekend with a win over Washington combined with the Rams’ shocking defeat to the Jets. Seattle has already clinched a spot in the NFC playoffs, but a win over the Rams will give the Seahawks their second division title in as many years.

This should be a good game assuming the Rams come in ready to play. McVay didn’t have his team up for the game last week, but motivation shouldn’t be an issue ahead of a game like this. Perhaps LA was caught looking ahead to this game when the Jets came in and pulled the upset of the season last Sunday.

As mentioned, the Seahawks are favored by 1.5 points in this one. You can still get the Rams at +175 odds to win the division if you think Los Angeles extends the race until Week 17, but Seattle looks like the better bet as things stand now.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)

Buccaneers Clinch Playoff Berth With:

• TB win or tie OR
• CHI loss or tie

Again, the Bears aren’t losing to the Jags on Sunday unless Matt Nagy just decides to pull the plug. That’s not happening with Nagy likely coaching for his job, so the Bucs’ best chances of punching their playoff ticket this week hinge on their ability to get a win in the Motor City on Saturday.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers one of the biggest betting favorites of the week despite this game being on the road. The Bucs are favored by 9.5 points against a Lions team that has won just one of its last five games overall. Detroit’s only win of the year over a team with a winning record was their three-point win in Arizona over the Cardinals way back in Week 3.

The Bucs will get in on Saturday.

Washington Football Team (6-8)

Washington Clinches NFC East With:

• WAS win + NYG loss or tie OR
• WAS tie + NYG loss + PHI-DAL tie

The Washington Football Team has quietly put together a solid season despite having shuffled through three starting quarterbacks. Injuries to Kyle Allen and Alex Smith have left Washington right back where they started with Dwayne Haskins under center. Haskins didn’t play particularly well in Sunday’s loss to Seattle, and after the game he took some heat for making an unmasked appearance at a local strip club. Whoops!

Washington said it was aware of pictures on social media showing QB Dwayne Haskins at a strip club Sunday night while not wearing a mask. https://t.co/UWzLYw7HWm

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 22, 2020

Regardless, Haskins’ job shouldn’t be in doubt with Washington on the verge of a rare division title. Despite being two games under .500 on the year, the Football Team can wrap up the miserable NFC East with a win over Carolina on Sunday combined with a Giants loss in Baltimore.

The Ravens haven’t been nearly as dominant as they were a season ago, but Lamar Jackson and co. are still heavily favored over a Giants team that mustered just six points on Sunday night against the Browns. Daniel Jones’ status is still in question after he missed the last game, which means the G-Men may have to trot Colt McCoy back out there again. The Ravens are favored by 11 points in this one, and with good reason.

So, it’s up to Washington to beat Carolina. Washington is currently favored by two points at home against a Panthers team that showed some fight at Lambeau Field last weekend. There is also a chance the Panthers get Christian McCaffrey back for this game, which could make things even more difficult for a Washington team that may struggle to put points on the board.

Who’s Getting In?

As of now, the Buccaneers and Rams look like the best bets to officially get into the playoffs in Week 16. The Rams just need the Cardinals to beat a severely undermanned 49ers outfit in order to get in, while all the Bucs have to do is beat the Lions. Both results look pretty likely, so LA and Tampa Bay should be home-free.

Seattle is also a smart bet to win their own divisional race if they beat the Rams on Sunday. The Cardinals will likely have to wait another week considering their fate rests in the hands of the Jaguars pulling an upset of the Bears, which isn’t happening with Jacksonville vying for the No. 1 overall draft pick.