NFL Conference Championship Props: Most Passing, Rushing, Receiving Yards

With all due respect to Super Bowl Sunday, Conference Championship Sunday may actually be the best day on the annual football calendar. This Sunday brings two matchups between arguably the NFL’s four best teams just two weeks ahead of Super Bowl 55. Needless to say, there’s a lot on the line.

Will Aaron Rodgers lead the Packers back to the Super Bowl for a second time? Will Tom Brady and the Buccaneers become the first team to ever play a Super Bowl in their home stadium? Will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs win it all for the second year in a row? Will the Bills pull off the upset and finally win a title for the first time in franchise history? We have no shortage of storylines to follow in advance of Sunday’s action.

Conference Championship Sunday is also a great day to be a football bettor. BetOnline is one of the many highly-rated NFL betting sites that offers you countless ways to wager on the festivities. The site has its usual slew of player-specific prop bets up and ready for your perusal. Let’s unearth some betting value.

Most Passing Yards in Conference Championship Round

• Josh Allen (+210)
• Patrick Mahomes (+225)
• Aaron Rodgers (+275)
• Tom Brady (+275)

With all due respect to the likes of Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, and Russell Wilson, it’s hard to imagine a better group of QBs to be watching on Sunday afternoon. Mahomes, Rodgers, and Brady are surefire future Hall-of-Famers, while Allen’s career is clearly trending in the right direction. Mahomes (second), Brady (third), Allen (fifth), and Rodgers (seventh) all ranked near the top of the league in passing yards during the regular season. All four will garner legitimate MVP consideration, as well.

Josh Allen (+210)

While the Buffalo Bills were a prolific offense during the regular season, they haven’t had to light up the scoreboard to win their first two playoff games. Buffalo mustered just 17 points in last week’s easy win over the Ravens, while they scored 27 the week prior against the Colts. Allen racked up 324 passing yards in the Wild Card Round against Indy, but Baltimore held him to 206 yards through the air last Sunday.

Allen will need a big showing if the Bills are to upset the Chiefs at Arrowhead this week. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo aggressively brought pressure against Allen in the first meeting of the year between these teams back in October. Allen also struggled with his accuracy in that one, as he completed just 14 of his 27 throws for a measly 122 yards. That was easily the worst showing of the year for the 24-year-old.

QBs remaining (and their age):

NFC:

-Aaron Rodgers (37)

-Tom Brady (43)

-Drew Brees (42)

AFC:

-Patrick Mahomes (25)

-Baker Mayfield (25)

-Josh Allen (24)

NFC: AFC: pic.twitter.com/Lj5LWJHdPw

— Giants Fans with Giant Johnsons (@ScottBrownNYG) January 17, 2021

It’s safe to expect Allen to improve upon his performance from that last game against the Chiefs, but Kansas City was still decent against the pass this season. KC ranked 13th in the league in passing yards allowed. The Chiefs are more vulnerable to the run, but the Bills’ offense has struggled to get much going on the ground all year long.

Patrick Mahomes (+225)

We don’t know for sure that Patrick Mahomes is even going to play on Sunday, but he seems to be on the right track. Mahomes was concussed last week against the Browns, which forced the Chiefs to rely on Chad Henne to close out the game. Obviously, the Chiefs’ chances of repeating as Super Bowl champs take a massive hit if Mahomes is unable to suit up.

The former Super Bowl MVP still racked up 255 passing yards last week against Cleveland before leaving the game. Mahomes averaged 316 passing yards per game this season, but the Bills did hold him to just 225 yards in their previous meeting in October. Buffalo finished 14th in the league in passing yards allowed per game, as well.

Clearly, if he plays, Mahomes is a great bet to lead Conference Championship Sunday in passing yards. He’s leading the most prolific offense in the NFL, and the current +225 odds are pretty tasty.

Aaron Rodgers (+275)

Aaron Rodgers will probably win MVP this season, but the Green Bay Packers are actually one of the most run-heavy offenses in football. Rodgers has been outstanding, but Green Bay ran on 45.1 percent of their offensive snaps in 2020. That was the seventh-highest rate in football.

That didn’t stop Rodgers from putting up massive numbers, of course. He finished with about 4,300 yards and nearly 50 touchdown passes, for Pete’s sake. If you add last week’s playoff win over the Rams, Rodgers has exactly 50 touchdown throws so far this season. Tampa Bay has a stingy defense that looked feisty last week in New Orleans, but the Bucs were still just 21st in the league in passing yards allowed per game.

The Buccaneers are better against the run than they are against the pass, which certainly plays into Rodgers’ hands. If the Packers aren’t able to establish Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, or AJ Dillon on the ground, they may have no choice but to take to the air behind Rodgers and Devante Adams.

Tom Brady (+275)

Tom Brady looked a bit wobbly early in the year, but he’s really come around of late. It just took him some time to acclimate himself to his new surroundings. Brady threw for nearly 400 yards in the Wild Card Round win over the Football Team before putting up 199 yards last week against the Saints.

“You lost that lovin’ feelin’, bring back that lovin’ feelin’” pic.twitter.com/lo4XIhrId0

— Tom Brady (@TomBrady) January 19, 2021

Brady looks like a solid bet here at +275. The Bucs are road ‘dogs at Lambeau, and the Bucs are a pass-happy offense. Potentially playing from behind means the Bucs may have to largely abandon the run. Tampa Bay threw on the fifth-highest percentage of their plays in the league this season, as well.

What’s the Best Bet?

Allen and Rodgers are certainly viable, but I like the value on Mahomes (+225) and Brady (+275) here. I don’t expect Mahomes to be any worse for the wear if he does play on Sunday. The Chiefs are capable of just about anything offensively, so I’d never talk you out of betting on Mahomes to lead the weekend in passing yards.

Brady is a perfectly reasonable option, too, thanks to the Bucs’ proclivity to take to the air. Since the odds are about even, though, I’ll just side with the extra perceived safety that comes with Mahomes.

Most Receiving Yards in Conference Championship Round

• Davante Adams (+325)
• Stefon Diggs (+350)
• Travis Kelce (+400)
• Tyreek Hill (+500)
• Chris Godwin (+600)
• Mike Evans (+750)
• Cole Beasley (+1400)
• Antonio Brown (+1600)
• John Brown (+2000)
• Allen Lazard (+2200)
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+2500)
• Robert Tonyan (+2800)
• Mecole Hardman (+3300)

Tyreek Hill wound up leading the Divisional Round in receiving yards when he grabbed eight passes for 110 yards in KC’s win over Cleveland. Teammate Travis Kelce (109) and Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs (106) weren’t far behind, followed by Green Bay’s Allen Lazard (96).

Davante Adams (+325)

Davante Adams had one of the most prolific receiving seasons ever in 2020, finishing with 115 catches for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns. Rodgers loves to look for Adams near the goal line, which helps explain how he has scored five touchdowns in just the last three games. While he found the end zone last week against the Rams, LA did a decent job of limiting Adams to just 66 yards receiving in the game.

Adams will also be facing a Bucs defense that just pitched a shutout against Michael Thomas last week. Thomas wasn’t playing at 100 percent as he dealt with a nagging ankle injury, but holding him without a catch is still an impressive feat for the Tampa defense. The Buccaneers also held Adams to just 61 yards without a score in the previous meeting between the teams earlier this year.

I wouldn’t say you’re foolish to take a flier on Adams to lead the weekend in receiving at +325, but we have better value on the board elsewhere.

Stefon Diggs (+350)

Stefon Diggs has wasted no time in developing a kinship with Allen in their first season together. Diggs was the NFL’s receiving leader this year, finishing with over 1,500 yards on 127 catches during the regular season. He’s kept it up in the playoffs, with back-to-back 100-yard efforts during the Bills’ run to the AFC Championship Game.

Stefon Diggs has been named to the Sporting News All-Pro Team! 🙌https://t.co/Gp6LqR9xVK pic.twitter.com/dRdSz9IZQ3

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 21, 2021

Kansas City’s defense may be better against the pass than the run, but I’d still be surprised if the Bills didn’t feed Diggs as often as they possibly can in this one. He was held to a modest 46 yards on six catches at home against KC earlier this year, but I’ll take the over on both numbers this week. Diggs at +350 looks like a better bet than Adams at +325.

Travis Kelce (+400)

Travis Kelce just broke the single-season receiving yards record for tight ends with 1,416 during the regular season for the Kansas City Chiefs. Kelce is Mahomes’ safety valve over the middle, and he’s one of the few tight ends in the league with legitimate big-play ability. Kelce hauled in eight of his 11 targets last week for 109 yards and a score against Cleveland.

Kelce found the end zone twice in the Chiefs’ win over the Bills earlier this year, but his 65 receiving yards in that game ranked among his worst performances of the campaign. Still, assuming Mahomes suits up in this one, you can do a lot worse than betting on Kelce to lead the week in receiving yards at the current +400 odds.

Tyreek Hill (+500)

As mentioned, Hill’s 110 yards last week led all receivers. While Kelce may be Mahomes’ favorite target, Hill certainly isn’t far off. Hill finished the season with 87 catches and nearly 1,300 yards along with an incredible 15 touchdown grabs. While Kelce’s volume is stable, Hill’s is more volatile. Hill has the ability to set records each and every week thanks to his game-breaking speed, but that over-the-top style can lead to some quiet weeks.

This Tyreek Hill catch 😳 pic.twitter.com/a5m01NM5xU

— ESPN (@espn) January 17, 2021

One of those quiet games happened earlier this year against the Bills, when he caught just three passes for 20 yards. The Bills did an excellent job of making sure Hill wouldn’t be the one to beat them, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t take a similar approach this week. I’ll pass on Hill at +500.

Chris Godwin (+600)

The problem with banking on a big performance from any single Bucs receiver is that Brady has a ton of options at his disposal. Brady has been happy to spread the wealth between Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown all year long. Even Scotty Miller or Rob Gronkowski pops up with a big play in the passing game every now and then. The value would have to be better than +600 to get me interested in wagering on any of Brady’s weapons to lead the weekend in receiving.

What’s the Best Bet?

Diggs and Kelce really stand out here. They have been two of the most reliable receivers in football all year long, and they are clearly the best bets on their respective teams to earn steady volume in the passing attack. I slightly prefer the extra upside you get in Kelce’s +400 odds, but I don’t think you’re doing it wrong if you’d rather side with Diggs at +350. Both are outstanding options.

Most Rushing Yards in Conference Championship Round

• Aaron Jones (+300)
• Devin Singletary (+350)
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+400)
• Leonard Fournette (+500)
• Ronald Jones (+525)
• Darrel Williams (+750)
• Jamaal Williams (+1000)
• Darwin Thompson (+1200)
• AJ Dillon (+1400)
• Le’Veon Bell (+1800)

Aaron Jones paced all rushers in the Divisional Round, finishing with 99 yards and a score in the Packers’ easy win over the Rams. Cam Akers’ 90 yards in the very same game ranked second, followed by New Orleans’ Alvin Kamara (85), Kansas City’s Darrel Williams (78), and Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (69).

Aaron Jones (+300)

The lack of bell-cow backs taking part in this year’s Conference Championship games is apparent. We have nobody like Lamar Jackson, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, or Derrick Henry in the fold this time around. Most of these teams use a stable of backs rather than relying on one guy to carry a backfield.

Aaron Jones is probably the closest thing we have to an every-down back between these four teams, but even he shares time in the Packers’ backfield with Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon. Jones played on 70 percent of Green Bay’s offensive snaps last week, which put him well ahead of Williams (26) and Dillon (11). We mentioned that the Packers are quietly one of the most run-heavy offenses in football, so Jones should get plenty of opportunities to do damage here.

AARON JONES BREAKS LOOSE FOR 60 YARDS 😱

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/2jHluxap1b

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 16, 2021

The matchup against the Buccaneers is a tough one, however. Tampa Bay allowed just 82.2 rushing yards per game this season, which was the best mark in the entire league. Green Bay will try and establish Jones and the ground game, but whether they have any success is another story. Jones was stuffed for just 15 rushing yards on 10 attempts against the Bucs back in October.

Devin Singletary (+350)

Devin Singletary is far from an elite running back, but this is all about opportunity. Zach Moss is out injured, which means Singletary is going to get the lion’s share of the work out of the Bills’ backfield. Singletary was on the field for 84 percent of the Bills’ offensive snaps in the win over the Ravens last week.

That said, he still only got seven carries and finished with 25 yards. Allen threw 37 passes in that game as the Bills carried the ball just 16 times as a team. This is just not a run-heavy offense, so Singletary will likely have to break off a huge play at some point in order to lead the weekend in rushing yards. Given his middling average of just 4.4 yards per carry this season, that seems rather unlikely.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+400)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is clearly the Chiefs’ preferred running back, but we don’t even know if he’s playing this week. The prized rookie out of LSU missed last week’s win over the Browns as he continues to recover from ankle and hip injuries. He’s been limited in practice this week, so it’s unclear whether he’ll hit the field Sunday against Buffalo.

Even if he plays, it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs giving Edwards-Helaire a massive workload. We know Kansas City prefers to put the ball in Mahomes’ hands, and Edwards-Helaire hasn’t seen game action in over a month. The Chiefs still have Darrel Williams, Le’Veon Bell, and Darwin Thompson in the backfield, too. The odds on Edwards-Helaire are too short at +400.

Leonard Fournette (+500) and Ronald Jones (+525)

Bruce Arians has shuffled his backfield around all season long. Ronald Jones was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ rushing leader during the regular season, but Leonard Fournette has played a big role at times. Fournette played on 68 percent of the Bucs’ plays last week against the Saints, while Jones was limited to just 29 percent of the plays as he continued to deal with a quad issue.

Bucs to start RB Leonard Fournette with Ronald Jones being a “game-time decision”.https://t.co/s4biv629lO

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 15, 2021

Fournette has been Arians’ preferred back from a receiving perspective. With the Bucs being so pass-happy, it’s fair to assume Fournette will out-snap Jones again this week. He finished with 63 yards on 17 rushing attempts last week, while Jones totaled 62 yards on 13 tries. Jones could play more this week if his injury is continuing to improve, but that remains to be seen.

Green Bay had the 11th-best run defense in the league this season, so running on the Packers isn’t easy.

What’s the Best Bet?

Frankly, none of these look like good options. The player with the most opportunities will presumably be Jones, but he faces the toughest matchup of all against Tampa Bay’s feisty run defense. Singletary likely won’t get enough opportunities to be worth your while at +350. Ditto for Edwards-Helaire at +400.

If you’re betting on this, I’d just punt for value. Jones was the Bucs’ most potent rushing threat during the regular season. He was healthy enough to play last week, so I’d assume he’s healthy enough to take on a slightly bigger role this week. Jones’ odds would be far more favorable than the current +525 number if he had a clearly-defined role, so I think this is a solid opportunity to take advantage of the uncertainty.

None of these options inspire much confidence, so rolling the dice on Jones at +525 makes plenty of sense.