5 Super Bowl 55 Props to Avoid

While billions of dollars will be wagered on Super Bowl 55, only a fraction of that money will actually be bet on the outcome of the game. That’s because prop bets have exploded in popularity in recent years. With more states voting to legalize sports betting all the time, it’s fair to assume that the industry is only going to keep growing.

It’s impossible to keep track of every single Super Bowl prop bet offered at NFL betting sites. It seems as though the betting sites get more creative with their prop offerings with each passing year. Super Bowl 55 will look a little different than most games we have seen over the years, of course, which presents a whole new slew of potential wagering opportunities.

Prop bets are fun, but not all of them are smart bets to make. Here are five prop bets to avoid for Super Bowl 55.

The Coin Toss

The coin toss has quickly become one of the most popular Super Bowl props bets of all. While most prop bets have odds heavily skewed in one direction or another, the opening coin flip is a true 50/5o proposition. It’s either going to land on heads or tails.

While you do have a good chance of guessing correctly, the chances are just as good that you’ll fail. If they flipped a coin one million times in a row, the odds are good that it would land on heads 500,000 times and tails another 500,000 times. At BetOnline.ag, you can get -105 odds on either side of the coin.

Art Manteris, who has spent more than 40 years running Las Vegas sportsbooks, remembers one of his high rollers at the old Hilton betting $100,000 on the coin flip, only to come back just hours later to bet the other side for $200,000.https://t.co/rltdL77gVS

— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) February 5, 2021

It’s just not worth the risk. There is no skill involved with correctly betting on the coin toss either. You’re literally just blindly guessing one way or the other. Prop bets are supposed to be fun. Betting on the result of a random coin toss seems like the opposite of fun.

If you’re going to place a prop bet on Super Bowl 55, you might as well bet on something that offers a bit more upside. With -105 odds on heads or tails, you’re not getting much bang for your buck. Avoid betting on the pregame coin flip.

First Reception

Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady both have plenty of weaponry with which to work. While the Chiefs’ pool of viable targets is fairly thin, you can safely bet that both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will see plenty of action. The Bucs, meanwhile, have countless pass-catchers. Brady has always been happy to spread the wealth, and he’s done just that in his first year in Tampa Bay. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, Cameron Brate, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson are all potential options to haul in the first pass of the game.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers – So, if the Bucs get the ball first, betting on a specific player to catch the first pass of the game is a literal crapshoot. Brady really doesn’t have a true No. 1 option. If someone is open, they’re probably getting the target. It’s nearly impossible to know which player will catch the first pass for the Bucs.
• Kansas City Chiefs – While Hill and Kelce are the most likely options from the Kansas City side, they’re hardly the only viable targets. Mecole Hardman, Le’Veon Bell, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle will all be out there running routes, too.

There isn’t a Peyton Manning/Reggie Wayne type of duo in this game, so avoid betting on which player will catch the first pass. There are just way too many options out there, and the odds on any one player aren’t nearly advantageous enough to be worth the risk.

Any Chiefs Rushing Prop

We know the Chiefs are here because of their offense, but that offense is surprisingly one-dimensional. Kansas City drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire and signed Le’Veon Bell to try and bring more balance to the offense, but this is still a very pass-heavy unit. If you have a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes, you’d be pretty dumb to insist on running the football, anyway.

It’s really hard to have much faith in any single Chiefs running back in this game. Not only does Kansas City have three RBs eating into each other’s workload, but Mahomes has also been known to tuck it and run on occasion. The matchup is also dreadful. Tampa Bay allowed the fewest rushing yards of any defense this season, and their front-seven is arguably the most talented in the NFL.

Le’Veon Bell has embraced the mentor role for #Chiefs running backs as he looks toward Super Bowl LV (via @Ron_Kopp) https://t.co/I6FdeCjYQc

— Arrowhead Pride (@ArrowheadPride) February 2, 2021

Frankly, we have no idea how Andy Reid will divvy up the carries. Edwards-Helaire figures to be the primary back, but the rookie has been dealing with injuries for over a month. Darrel Williams and Bell will also factor into the picture in some capacity. We have very little clarity on how the Chiefs plan to approach the running game, and the matchup is dreadful for opposing running backs, to begin with.

I’d expect to see a heavy dosage of Mahomes in this one, and with good reason. The Chiefs’ bread is buttered through the aerial attack. Mahomes threw for over 450 yards the last time they met. Avoid betting on any KC-related rushing prop in Super Bowl 55.

Missed Field Goal Props

Super bowl betting sites go all-out for the Super Bowl. If you’re so inclined, you can even take a look at the various kicker-related props available at several online sportsbooks. One specific kicker prop stands out as one to dodge, though. BetOnline is offering a prop on how the first missed field goal of the game will go awry.

Here are the options: 

• Wide right (+120)
• Wide left (+120)
• Short (+500)
• Hits left upright (+500)
• Hits right upright (+500)
• Hits crossbar (+1000)

…How are we supposed to know what happens here? There is expected to be some rain in the forecast for Sunday in Tampa, which also complicates things. Missing a kick to the right or left might make more sense if kickers were dealing with windy conditions. Rain might make it more difficult on the ball to travel through the air.

Will there be enough rain for it to really matter? Or are we talking about light showers?

As is the case with the first reception prop, I don’t think the odds here are advantageous enough to be worth your while. You’re only getting barely better than even money on the first kick to miss to the right or left. Kickers tend to be volatile, so there’s really no telling exactly how the first kick of the game will be missed. It’s also worth remembering that there’s a chance both kickers convert on all of their attempts on Sunday, which makes this prop even dicier.

Position of Super Bowl MVP

Quarterbacks have accounted for the vast majority of Super Bowl MVPs over the years, but we will see a random player from another position rise up every now and again. 30 of the 54 Super Bowl MVPs to this point have been QBs, while seven running backs and wide receivers have also won it.

It isn’t surprising at all to see Mahomes and Brady listed as the odds-on favorites to win MVP on Sunday. QB is listed as a -375 favorite to be the position of the MVP, followed by wideout (+400), tight end (+800), running back (+900), any defensive position (+900), and kicker (+6600).

For the first time ever, this Super Bowl matchup will feature QBs who have both won league MVP and Super Bowl MVP honors! pic.twitter.com/S5RIeQo5ge

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) February 3, 2021

Wide receiver at +400 does offer some upside, especially given how many talented WRs we have in this game between Hill, Hardman, Evans, Godwin, and Brown. However, the Chiefs’ second-best player is probably Travis Kelce, a tight end. It would be a surprise if anyone other than Mahomes or Brady won MVP, but it’s fairly difficult to peg which position would be the next-most likely if one of them doesn’t.

Betting on the odds of individual players to win MVP makes a whole lot more sense than taking the broader approach with picking a position to win it. The potential returns just aren’t worth the amount of risk.